the revolution will be webcast

New PM

2010-05-11T13:25:00.000-07:00

We have a new PM in the UK, David Cameron. It looks like a Con/Lib coalition government will shortly be announced. As a Lib Dem voter, pre-election, I'd have found this prospect horrifying but somehow, at this point, it seems right.

A Lib/Lab coalition would have been a doomed exercise I feel. Although I would argue that such a coalition would have had some claim of "legitimacy"(representing 52% of the vote) in reality it would have been ungainly and likely to collapse. Had this happened the damage to the "centre-left" support would have been catastrophic, rejigging politics in the UK to the "right" for a generation.

If this coalition works the Lib Dems should hopefully hold this new government towards the centre ground. Manage this feat and the Lib Dems, in proving the benefits of pluralist coalition government, may just do the cause of PR reform some good despite not securing a commitment to electoral reform.

Then of course it may all turn to custard. That'll be the end of the Lib Dems.

UK Election

2010-04-30T09:36:00.000-07:00

Well we've had the Leaders debates, now just the last few days of campaigning and then the vote next Thursday. The press, even the Guardian for goodness sake, seem to be starting to call it Cameron's way.

We really must rally the "keep the Tories out" vote. On current percentages of support the majority of this country (Labour+Lib Dem supporters) is still very much "centre-left". The Tories will almost certainly gain a marginally higher percentage than each of the other parties, but that will hardly be a mandate to unleash what is likely to be a policy programme resembling THATCHERISM ON STEROIDS.

Lib/Lab centre-left coalition, representing a majority of the British people, must be the best outcome that can be hoped for. With the Lib's unexpected strong showing in the polls "centre-left" progressives potentially have a unique opportunity here. With The current flawed FPTP system a political party can normally only re-invent itself while in Opposition. A Lib/Lab coalition will bring political re-invention without passing power to the Right. It should also bring much needed electoral reform which will make it difficult for a minority party of the Right(Tories) to ever govern again as what Lord Hailsham referred to as an "elected dictatorship".

Labour deserve to be punished for Iraq, the erosion of civil liberties, their role in the credit crunch, and their pathetic inability to replace an utterly lame PM, Brown. Alas punishing them too much will only lead to us all being punished with 5 years under Tory rule. A tactical Liberal/Labour "keep the Tories out" vote can give Labour a "black eye" without passing power to Cameron. It's unlikely under the current voting system that the Libs will garner more seats than Labour, but with a larger share of the popular vote they'll certainly be wearing the trousers of "LEGITIMACY" in any coalition.

A London Moment.

2009-10-15T14:47:00.000-07:00

We were at an excellent concert last night at the Barbican featuring the Kings of Convenience. 'Brilliant show. At one point band member Erlend Øye stated that he used to live in this town - meaning London. Obliviously thrown by the lack of the kind of enthusiastic reaction you might expect from other cities he then asked where we all were from then? Queue a myriad of cosmopolitan responses covering much of the UK,Europe and even Mexico.

That's London, about as far from parochial as you could possibly get. I think that's one of the reasons I love it!

Nobel Peace Prize

2009-10-09T11:33:00.000-07:00

It appears Barack Obama has received the Nobel Prize for the achievement of not being George Bush.

‘Good thing too I believe. He may not have done much in his time in office but just his presence on the world stage signifies the lifting of a dark cloud.

Essentially this prize is recognition for the American people showing the good sense to elect Obama, an event that still heartens me and many others around the world.

Still, I expect the moronic, Fox News viewing American right will probably twist this into a negative. For them any approval from abroad is to be regarded with suspicion. These cranks can’t even accept that Obama is an American for goodness sake.

House Price Madness

2009-10-04T04:14:00.000-07:00

Reports this week say the housing market is now back to peak 2008 levels. Of course it isn't really back to that level in real terms as the £ has taken one hell of a hit. The whole economy has effectively been run for the benefit of those homeowners/banks who over extended during the boom and the weak £ - driven down by low interest rates and quantitative easing - has been left to carry the burden.

Of course, outside of hols on the Costa', the poor saps who live in the UK don't see this. With the house price boom being the bubble literally to big to let burst what are the lessons we all have learnt? Pretty much all the wrong ones I'm afraid! We seem to be going back to our destructive debt addled ways, only this time even more recklessly with the false security that the government won't let it all go tits-up.

The economy is effectively held hostage by the an insane housing market and the resulting policy of ongoing low interest rates is the very prescription that to a large degree created the environment for the recent crash in the first place. Next time the bubble looks like bursting the government will be impotent to act - they've shot their bolt and not only not fixed the fault in the system but adopted an economic course that can only lead to a bigger financial meltdown in the future.

We really are screwed!

Murdoch's 'End of Free' and the future of newspapers.

2009-08-11T05:01:00.000-07:00

There's currently much talk of Murdoch's move to place his English newspaper titles behind a "paywall". Simon Jenkins in his article Goodbye Guardian. Hello the Guardian Experience has an excellent take on what newspapers might do to improve revenues or even entice punters over such a paywall.

In his piece Jenkins writes......

Whatever the point of entry, somewhere behind a paywall was a beckoning club, privileged access not just to news and comment but to a galaxy of media brands, events, concerts, courses, seminars, conferences, tours and related discounts and dating agencies. To pay was not to read, it was to join.

It seems to me that newspapers first and foremost need to get over being "newspapers" and embrace and engage their core brand and audience. This will be easier for some more than others - the Guardian certainly represents a strong global liberal brand. They should be portals on their readers whole lifestyles, not just suggesting where to take a trip and what movie to watch but selling them the holiday and the DVD.

I would expect the differences between other media like TV and newspapers to erode also. Why shouldn't The Sun bring you a future series of Big Brother streaming live from it's website?

The dead trees that constitute a newspaper represent only a delivery system, and a rather outmoded, inefficient and environmentally damaging one at that. Newspapers future will be secured when we've long since stopped calling them such.

LOOKALIKES!

2009-04-28T03:57:00.000-07:00

Cameron Diaz.actor(left) Josef Fritzl.killer,pervert etc(right)

A little dated this,I did think of it awhile back but only now thought it a laugh to put up on blog.

Ahmadinejad is Right!

2009-04-21T13:50:00.000-07:00

It pains me to say this but I thought Ahmadinejads' controversial comment that Israel was a "cruel & repressive racist regime" over the Palestinians was a statement of FACT! His further comments that Israel was created by the US and Europe on the "pretext of Jewish suffering" from the Second War, is also nothing if not accurate.

WHY ALL THE FUSS?

It's a shame all the western governments up in arms over this weren't so worked up in anger around New Year when Israel was bombing the crap out of Gaza with phosphorus!

I've not heard or read the full transcript(assuming a translation could be relied on anyway?) of Ahmadinejads' speech but if the above quotes reported in the British press are the worst of it then it appears to have been a relatively reasoned and measured address.

This makes the mass walkout of western diplomats,not to mention the other nations who boycotted the event, look ridiculous quite frankly.I suspect they were all "primed" to walk even before they heard the words of the speech.Has Mossad got compromising polaroids of all western leaders or something?

I don't intend to be an Ahmadinejad apologist.I've little time for his odious regime.I'm also in no way against the state of Israel,it exists and I wish it a viable,peaceful future........alongside a viable Palestinian state.

That the debate has been so skewed towards the RIGHT WING position of Israels current government is tragic.This does no one any favours,least of all Israel which,without compromise and peace with it's neighbours, finds itself on a path towards it's likely eventual destruction.Surely true Zionists with a sense of self preservation should pursue a more moderate position.

And as for the West........no wonder the Muslim world hates us!

The "Porn" ultimatum.

2009-04-07T11:21:00.000-07:00

Could there possibly be a more embarrassing way for your wife to find out you've been watching porn?

Beleaguered British Home Secretary's husband Richard Timney has 'fessed up to watching adult movies at the couples constituency home while his wife was away.Not a crime on it's own,but said porn was subsequently charged to Jacqui Smiths parliamentary expenses which were recently leaked to the British press.

Now where this story doesn't quite scan for me is why would an intelligent grown man, in an age of freely accessible hard core porn to suit even the most discerning or depraved connoisseur of skin flicks via the wonderful internet,choose to get his rocks off to a pay per view film on the Virgin cable package(with incriminating itemised billing)?

Here's my theory,based on nothing other than incredulity that Mr Smith could be so dumb, and the apparent solidarity Jacqui Smith appears to be showing with her husbands indiscretion.Suppose the adult films weren't watched by Mr Timney at all.The couples sons are aged 10 and 13,about the age I expect you'd be endeavouring to access those forbidden adult channels on the TV.In this scenario Mr Timney accepts responsibility for accessing said porn to save his own children the inevitable humiliation which,played out in the school yard rather than a ravenous national press,would probably cause much greater emotional damage to those concerned in the longer term.

So if this were to have been the case then Mr Timney's actions are transformed.He's no longer a husband,getting his auto-erotic kicks while the missus is away,but a dad committing a noble act to protect his children and family.

Then of course he might've just been having a w*nk on the state!

The London G20

2009-04-02T06:03:00.000-07:00

I'm with Sarko' and Merklel on this one.France and Germany have long held out against the excesses of un-fettered free-market anglo-saxon economic model.I hope they stick to their guns and hold out for some real fundamental change to how the global financial market operates.Rhetoric aside it really does look like Brown and Obama just want to reflate the bubble and get back to business as usual in the financial world.That option may work short term,but whether it's 6 months or 6 years,without real radical reform to the way global capitalism operates we will end up eventually back where we are now,only worse!

There appears little doubt that it's "Anglo-saxon" neo-liberal capitalism that's created this sorry mess.Germany,France and the other west european countries are affected, in part, from the recklessness of their own financial institutions involvement in "casino-capitalism". But also ,and more significantly,they are exposed to the east european countries economic melt-down.The irony is "Old Europe" bank rolled "New Europe's" anglo-saxon neo-liberal economic adventure leaving them uniquely cluster-rogered by the collapse of the anglo-saxon model.I can see why they're well pissed off!

Of course the French and the rest of mainland europe are also always closer to popular revolt than the US and UK.It's in their historical DNA and we can see this illustrated in the more virulent protests across the continent,as opposed to the more passive populations of the anglo-world.The threat of the crisis leading to political instability must seem so much more tangible to Sarkozy and Merkel and I can fully understand why they want to shift away from "casino capitalism" to a more equitable,regulated model.

But will the US and UK buy into this solution? One requiring effectively the establishment of some sort of supranational body to impose the ultimate "top-down" solution to regulate and reign in the global markets that have run amok? I very much doubt they will! The global markets as they currently exist essentially hold a gun to our collective head,limiting the actions that can be taken by governments........and that's the main problem we have! Any radical moves to reign in and regulate would likely be met with a swift negative reaction in the markets leading to potentially more problems.

Maybe things just haven't gotten bad enough yet? Maybe the populations of the anglo world need to "grow a pair" and let the politicians that control them know that they can't take their passivity for granted? I'm sure we will eventually arrive at the establishment of a new economic global order closer to the vision of Germany and France,I just don't think it's going to happen at this G20 meeting.

Hopefully it's a position the we'll arrive at sooner rather than later,before we get to complete economic melt-down,civic disorder and bloodshed!

Risk......accept it,embrace it,respect it!

2009-03-14T13:56:00.000-07:00

An interesting point was made the other day by an attendee at a LSE lecture on origins of the economic crisis and the medias complicity in it. This audience member stated that the crisis wasn't caused by financial "Risk" taking but rather by bankers seeking the avoidance of risk. He didn't get the chance to elaborate but I thought this a refreshing take on the situation.

The CDO's and other sophisticated financial mechanisms at the centre of the crisis were all about eliminating risk. The insurance that AIG provided seemed like a sure bet,they obviously figured they were effectively insuring the desert against floods. The banks who took policies out thought they would eliminate or at least manage risk.

But there was a "flood" and risk had not been eliminated. Instead like mountaineers all roped together on a perilous slope the risk was spread and when the unexpected flood did hit, and AIG didn't have enough to cover it in the pot, every mo' fo' was going over that cliff.

RISK and FAILURE and exposure to the MORAL CONSEQUENCES of both are essential to the working of a healthy MARKET. That bankers thought they had outwitted it is central to this banking collapse.

Gordon still doesn't get it!

2009-03-08T04:43:00.000-07:00

Gordon Brown still appears in denial over his and his governments role in the current financial shamozzle with his refusal of any kind of an apology.It's as if he really believes this lack of complicity rather than it just being political posture,a delusion in scale not far off Tony Blair's one over Saddam being a threat.

His reported outburst to reporters last week on the flight to Washington illustrates this.When asked why he didn't do something to moderate the housing bubble he responded ‘House prices were high because of a lack of supply.’ I never bought this often repeated line before the crash and I don't buy it now.If there were any logic to it it would follow that now prices are now falling because of an OVER SUPPLY in housing stock.The fact is banks had cheap money they were desperate to loan it on insane property valuations.

When I entered the housing market in 1997 you were lucky if the banks valuation matched the property asking price.Fortunately mine did but I know other buyers at the time who had to scramble the shortfall in funds elsewhere.Often deals fell through due to this problem.As the housing boom progressed,and more money flowed into the financial system from the far east,banks seemed less fussy on these valuations as property prices spiraled ever upwards. THEIR UNQUESTIONING FINANCE IS WHAT INFLATED THE BUBBLE!

Gordon Brown could and should have acted to moderate this behaviour and he could have done so in a myriad of ways........capital gains tax,restrictions on loaned amounts etc.

I'm not holding my breath for the apology mind.DELUSION seems a key part of the "New Labour" model.I don't expect we'll ever see Blair apologise, or even admit error, over the Iraq invasion either.

Mad Bankers' Disease

2009-02-27T04:55:00.000-08:00

It has been fun seeing the Bankers and other fellow financial travellers' squirm in front of the Treasury Select Committee these last few weeks although I ultimately feel the whole process is rather ineffectual.What we really need is some kind of financial "NUREMBERG TRIAL" for the characters who created this mess.

The negligent ,and I'd say thieving, bankers should be facing some kind of proper financial or even criminal sanction for their actions rather than the slap across the wrist with a damp teabag these grillings represent.That Fred "The Shred" Goodwin gets to keep his near £700,000 annual pension,not to mention all the (supposedly contractually obligated)bonuses being paid to other failed bankers is shameful.The fact is that if these banks had not been bailed out by the tax payer there wouldn't be any question of this money being paid at all.......they'd have been no money to pay them.

FSA chairman Lord Turner and Mervyn King,the Bank of England governor,in their grillings before the Treasury Committee both pointed the finger for the apparent lack of effective regulation at the government and its insistence of a "Light Touch" approach.In some ways this debacle is rather reminiscent of Mad Cow Disease in the early 1990s when a lack of proper and effective regulation lead to cattle being fed cattle with disastrous consequences.

But when all is said and done I don't think you can blame MAD BANKER DISEASE on the BANKERS any more than you can blame mad cow disease on the cows.What we had in both instances was a regulatory failure.But the failure was not with the regulators themselves,they could only do their job as prescribed ultimately by the politicians.

The bankers aren't blameless of course,they were greedy b*ggers and they should face penalties for their actions where appropriate.But it's bankers job to be greedy,it's their whole point for existing.If fox kills a chicken you can condemn that fox but it's ultimately pointless doing so.You need a freaking better fence and you should ask why the fence wasn't sound enough in the first place? The politicians are the real ones culpable here.They are the ones who should be grilled.And in particular I'm thinking one politician...........

Please step into the dock Gordon Brown.

New Labours obit'?

2009-02-20T07:56:00.000-08:00

The British Labour Party is to my mind finished! The upcoming election(maybe this year,probably spring 2010) will be an annihilation for them,barring an incredible re-invention between now and then(stand up Alan Johnson please).

But what of the not insubstantial constituency that is the "Centre-Left" voters of the UK? Abandoned by "New Labour" long ago can we really wait the 10-15 years it'll take Labour to re-invent itself(and be forgiven) in opposition.We need a credible progressive CENTRE LEFT political force in the UK sooner than that to counter what could otherwise be a long dark period of Conservative rule ahead.

One of two things needs to happen.Either the Liberal Democrats need to "grow a pair" and re-seize the centre left mantle,or there needs to emerge(possibly from Labours' ashes)and new political party.

Martin Kettle in todays Guardian predicts such an opportunity for the Liberal Democrats.These really are,as he says,"seismic times",the like of which have on previous occasions brought about much politcal change, and I don't think this time will be any different.Vince Cable is one of the few sound voices in these uncertain times,although I do fear that the leader of the Lib Dems(whatshisname,i've gotta look this up here?)Nick Cleggs' greatest acheivement is in managing to make Tory leader David Cameron look "substantial".........quite some feat!

The other option,a whole new political party,is what I'd like to see rise from the current and approaching turmoil.I sometimes mourn that the British political system,unlike the American,only allows re-invention in opposition.Even then it's an incredibly slow and painful drawn out process,witness Labour 1979-97.

My point is WE CAN'T WAIT THAT LONG this time! Something new,and of the "LEFT" has to emerge.

I do believe we will see something positive,and of the "Left" emerge out of the coming economic and political chaos.It's going to get ugly shorter term but we will ,longer term, arrive in a better more equitable place.

The demise of Bonus Culture?

2009-02-09T09:02:00.000-08:00

The climate seems to be moving towards a consensus,with the public at least,that something really has to be done about the insane "Bonus Culture" of the last 20 years.There seems little doubt that the excessive risk this system elicits has been a big driver in creating the current shambles we're in.

Unfortunately I fear Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling just don't get it! Their advisers on getting to grips with the situation are in general all "BANKERS" with a vested interest in maintaining the current failed system.Any move to place limits on bankers excessive pay,if they happen in the UK at all,will be due to President Obama shaming them into it.

It was also very telling that Peter Mandelson warned part nationalised RBS bankers against how new bonuses would "appear".An obsession with how things "APPEAR",rather than any real substance,has been the chief charactoristic of the "New Labour" project.

The obscenity of City Bonuses paid largely on nebulous capital gain over the boom years has massively "looted" our financial system.This behavior was akin to an individual say paying themselves a hefty bonus based on the capital gain of their property in any given year.Many home owners effectively did do this by borrowing against their properties.At least they owned the property in question and by owning property in the first place were exposed to an element of risk(unlike the bankers).Either way this was a reckless financial act.The money simply didn't exist!

But now ,with prices in retreat, how do you fill the hole? And what a hole........the 31billion(Centre for Economics and Business Research estimate)paid out in bonuses to UK bankers in just the last 4 years ,had it not already been siphined off, would've gone some way to filling it!

If the "market" worked correctly you'd expect shareholders to have called a stop to this greed.Of course these days there's a disconnect between shareholders and any moderating influence they might have had with most shares held in "managed funds".Funds "managed" by people who see no fault in a bonus culture that also enriches them.

But of course not all of those BILLIONS went into bankers pockets.A sizable chunk went in taxes to the Exchequer.That's a big reason why I don't think Gordon Brown will do anything to stop this insane bonus system.

Well done Boris!

2009-01-27T11:45:00.000-08:00

I loved the story on Channel Four news last evening on the spat between Mayor Boris Johnson and former Metropolitan Police Commissioner Sir Ian Blair.

armed police leave scene of de Menezes shooting

Blair took exception to a comment Johnson made during his mayoral campaign where he described the arm police who shot Jean Charles de Menezes as possibly being "trigger happy".In a letter to Johnson Blair asked in the "strongest terms" that he withdraw his comment.In reply Boris said........

"I have absolutely no intention of doing so.It is hard to think of any other description of a catastrophe in which a completely innocent man ends up with seven bullets in his head."

Read Boris Johnson's full letter here.

It's so refreshing to hear such strong langauge used by a prominent public figure to describe the polices' conduct in this tragic incident,'just a shame his most damning words were buried in "private" correspondence,until now.

I was outside Stockwell tube station a short while after the shooting and my observations of the police conduct very quickly had me feeling that all wasn't as it seemed. Police were overly paranoid of media covering the incident endeavoring to stop photographers getting anywhere close to covering events. This didn't seem consistent with a "successful" anti-terror operation to me. Ian Blair claims he didn't know an innocent man had been shot for more than 24 hours. This may be so but I think the police on the ground at Stockwell knew very quickly that they may have made a mistake?

The whole episode is tragic. The biggest injustice I believe is that had de Menezes been a British national someone would indeed have been prosecuted for his killing and Sir Ian Blair would have resigned a whole lot sooner..............for the RIGHT reason.

The First Post

2009-01-27T11:20:00.000-08:00

So here goes........my first post!

Having held forth on a myriad of subjects to my wife and friends for some years they finally asked,"why don't you start a blog?" Well now that I find myself with an excess of free time due to ongoing medical treatment I figured "why not?"

It may at times be rambling but I hope also to be at least mildly entertaining most of the time ,and only offensive on occasion.

'hope you enjoy?